all calm

Riots in London, you've probably read about it, seen pictures on the BBC or watched news clips. It started last Thursday when – during the arrest of an alleged gangster, drug dealer and criminal – the, in other news reports, caring father-of-four was shot and killed. Talk of excessive police force circulated quickly. Infuriating stories of past injustices were retold. Jean Charles de Menezes was executed on the tube because someone heard somebody say that he might be carrying a bomb, or something like that. There was nothing to it. Ian Tomlinson got beaten by a cop for finding himself in the crowd during the G20 protests, and later died. Convincing conspiracies have been woven with fewer facts.

On Saturday, while an investigation into the death was ongoing, the family of the victim and members of the police were scheduled to meet to exchange explanations and defuse the situation that was building up. The opposite happened. Kids from rough estates (and a fair share of middle-class youngsters in for a festival of kicks, I would guess), mere teenagers but possibly goaded by criminal elements, started rioting then looting in Tottenham where the killing had happened. Patrol cars were torched, buses and taxis went up in flames, shops were destroyed, several buildings burned to the ground. People apparently carried big TVs from raided Currys to their waiting cars. The police were helpless, and hapless.

The next night, the same pictures, except the violence had spread a bit. It was unnoticeable to me. Tottenham is in zone 3, in the north east, on the other end of London. Tonight, the rioting spread even further, down south and west, and it drew closer. I opened my front window. There was something in the air. The night was not like every night.

North End Road is always busy, always loud, the noise frequently pierced by the wails of ambulances or patrol cars. Tonight, there were many more patrol cars, driving at speeds that conveyed a strong sense of urgency. Cops walked down the sidewalks, not in riot gear but in groups of up to six. Kids in dark hoodies, almost invisible against the night, baseball caps pulled low over their eyes, stood in boisterous groups. It was easy to read menace into their presence.

I went down to talk to the shop owners. It is they who would suffer the most because their street-level properties are easy targets. Gerard who runs the internet café was tense. "Fulham is burning, Hammersmith is burning. I'm gonna sleep here tonight", he said. His shutters were down by ten, an hour earlier than usual. At the grocery store next door, they wrapped up their wares at the same time.

Subjectively, there was something going on. Something clearly lay in the air. Objectively, nothing much was different from any other day. Buses were still running and around eleven, a street sweeper made its way noisily up the road, an orange-vested man with a broom walking next to it, diligently clearing rubbish from the sidewalk. Civilization was hanging on.

It's interesting to consider the factors that ensure peaceful and orderly communities. Just laws and fair enforcement would probably come out on top in a poll. But the last few nights have shown that acceptance and compliance are much more important. If a sizable portion of the population decides that the laws don't apply to them, anarchy descends, at least in the short term, until the police presence has been reinforced to deal with the troublemakers. It's scary how narrow the gap between peace and disorder is, the potential for violence that exists underneath the surface.

The last three nights have also shown how large the potential for violence is. The perpetrators are almost always kids and adolescents, from disenfranchised backgrounds, from walks of life that are dead-ends in all respects, from broken families and bad schools or no schools at all. These are the Londoners one doesn't see unless there's another charity drive. These are people that have effectively dropped out of the mainstream, leading an existence on the fringes of society. With few formal qualifications, with no respect for anyone or anything outside their peer group, with no motivation or confidence to achieve anything, they are a time bomb waiting to explode. Anything can blow the fuse, for example the fatal shooting of an alleged drug dealer that the vast majority of people couldn't care less about.

North End Road is still peaceful, though there's an edgy tension in the air. There's more noise that usual, noticeably more noise from people on the sidewalks, talking to each other with excitement in their voices. People are going back and forth, crossing the street left and right, getting high on the energy of the situation, dreaming of power and possibilities. They shove each other teasingly and laugh, but one can imagine how the situation could quickly change, how banter could turn into an altercation, how a discarded soda pop can could turn into a projectile that ignites everyone. But nothing's happening, just a few more patrol cars howling up and down the street.

Nothing continued to happen throughout the night, with three exceptions. There was a congregation of two dozen cops at a 99p-shop just three doors down, ready for action, four cars with their blue lights flashing parked in a semicircle. The standoff against invisible opponents lasted for five minutes, then the cops dispersed. Then there was the moment, at around 11:30, when things could have turned ugly. A narrow passageway leads into the estate on the eastern side of the streets. Kids started throwing a few rocks and two-by-fours and immediately the cops showed, still low-key, no riot gear, just knife-proof vests. Between barricades and retreat, the kids chose the latter, but they pelted the cops with anything they had as they did so. Half an hour later, riot police made a show and ventured into the alleyway, but there was no action.

This is good because I'm not sure I'd give the cops full marks for their approach these last few days. The beat cops of the Metropolitan Police are awesome. They are dedicated, friendly, approachable, helpful, guys you want to have around in your community. In contrast, the top end of the police force is incompetent or worse. The phone hacking scandals cost the two top cops their jobs (because the hacking was allegedly not seriously investigated, allegedly in parts thanks to monetary contributions by News of the World, the word allegedly used here to avoid conflict with Britain's savage libel laws) and the force is in disarray.

It is the worst of times. But chasing kids around the blocks they grew up in is tough even in the best of times. Prevention of a repetition of the riots (once they have been stopped) must consequently start at the source. Society, the law, moral values, respect, possibility and achievable dreams have to return to the areas where they have been increasingly excluded. Social cohesion must be rebuilt, the family strengthened. I don't know how, it's not a question with a simple answer, and in any case, now it's time for bed. It's all calm outside.